Category Archives: Economics

Economics

Vancouver Teetering On Edge of Bankruptcy

Beneath The Beauty

Is Vancouver teetering on the edge of bankruptcy? Are you old enough to remember the federal immigration policy instituted by Brian Mulroney which encouraged capital investment from abroad via the immigration system? Come to Canada and invest a sum while guaranteeing to employee a few. This was the start of the of the real estate growth wave in Vancouver. The program was only loosely monitored and became the conduit for infusing money into the lower mainland thereby ousting those native born without ancestral ties access to the market.

The demographic of Vancouver changed dramatically in a short time frame and there was a definite cultural shift amidst a policy of “multiculturalism”. This was new vocabulary established partly to challenge the xenophobe while complementing robust immigration policy. When we look around at the cultural mosaic today in lieu of the government message, we see some success but greater failure. The greater failures were middle aged and older Asians not really making the strong effort to immerse along with a white contingent who was not overly welcoming. So, there was a contrast between the government’s ideal and the urban reality. When we look around today, we can give strong marks to the immigrants of millennial and younger generations for gravitating toward their own Canadian destiny.

The capital infusion into B.C.’s lower mainland didn’t stop with the economic immigrant. Banking regulation in Canada has been lax. Imported capital has not been scrutinized. Dirty money has been making its way into Canada for decades and politicians have turned a blind eye. Bankers liked it. Bank shareholders have liked it. It’s only been as recent as four years ago that money laundering activity at casinos in Vancouver became targeted by regulators.

These two sources of capital have been substantial in the real estate market in Vancouver. As of this writing during the COVID-19 pandemic, the City of Vancouver has suggested bankruptcy as an option in the context of 65 per cent of Vancouverites missing their April 1, 2020 property tax payment. Fifty-five per cent are projected to miss their May 1st 2020 payment. What’s the correlation between a hypothesized artificial rise in real estate valuation and the failure of the city to collect taxes amidst the COVID crisis? I suggest that the city’s budget and historic spending grew in tandem within the context of a property tax system built on a weak structure of property valuation and hence the house of cards is now teetering amidst a black swan. 

Economics

Monetary System and Bankers Code

Canada is facing a large increase to the money supply in the context of new social programs associated with COVID-19. Your government in conjunction with financial news outlets do not want to use language like “increase the money supply” because it may be deemed alarming or inflationary. Instead, it refers to the monetary system in bankers code.

In essence, government securities are floated for distribution to commercial banks via the country’s “central bank”. The creation of this “security” (example would be a treasury bill or bond) in effect provides the directive for printing press operators to flip the switch. However; in advance of the creation of the new security, the central bank will check its “reserves” to ensure that the “vaults” are sufficiently equipped with an “asset” to merit the production of a new “security”. This is where things get interesting.

It used to be the case that gold characterized the reserve asset. However; gold lost its lustre as a reserve asset when President Nixon took the U.S. off the “Gold Standard” in 1971. President Roosevelt Roosevelt in fact ordered Americans to return gold for dollars as a mechanism to cope with The Great Depression.  

So now, we have the creation of new money without a tangible assets being served as its foundation for existence. Furthermore, we are presented with ever increasing national debts represented by the apparent financing of governments by holders of such securities which will stretch way beyond ledgers of domestic commercial banks. We also have the vast majority of economists supporting such a system and special interest groups professionally organized to acquire government funding.

What can happen when a Black Swan event such as COVID-19 compels governments to inject new money in the hands of consumers in the context of a monetary system which has no tangible asset at its root? Inflation or deflation of course. This is the great debate. Logic dictates that prices should rise with a larger monetary base. However; when social conditions deteriorate, a hoarding impulse may compel folks to store their cash thereby producing deflation. Every economist will tell you that the worst economic scenario is one of “deflation”.

 Politicians without any exposure to “Austrian Economic Theory” will naturally defer to “Keynesian” (flooding market with currency during demand drop) doctrine of mainstream economic thought. Will next generations be contented with paying interest on seemingly unsustainable national debts or will there be a consolidation at some point? Author Jim Rickard has referenced the “Special Depository Right” as a new unit of currency established by the International Monetary Fund.      

Economics

Canadian Practical Measures COVID-19 & Economic Crisis

Recommendations for the federal government of Canada in lieu of corona virus pandemic and economic crisis. Will they listen? I don’t know.

  1. Permit the purchase and sale of unused RRSP contribution room.
  2. Permit the direct tax deductibility of net capital losses up to a maximum of $25,000 per year.
  3. Rewrite usery laws prohibiting lenders from charging more that a seven per cent differential from the Bank of Canada overnight rate.
  4. Reassess affordability of Canada Child Benefit program.
  5. Expropriate treaty land deemed necessary for commercial development from which fair negotiations have failed.
  6. Proclaim jurisdiction over tide water ports with constitutional amendment if required.
  7. Assign able bodied unemployed men to environmental remediation projects.
  8. Improve service channels to Canadians via CRA and Service Canada.
  9. Impose and enforce director liability for environmental negligence.
  10. Responsibly incentivize investors interested in the development of our natural resources.

If any reader finds this list appropriate, do feel free to copy the items into a letter addressed to any Canadian politician you deem open minded.  

Economics

Banking Credit Specifics Amidst COVID-19

You’ll notice that your governments are speaking in code much of the time when it comes to addressing the financial impact, consequences to your household, and detail pertaining to your access to credit facilities in the context of COVID-19. Your Prime Minister is once again scheduled to address the nation at 11:30am EST. We’ll see if he get his “head of his a@s” and starts speaking in terms of your household cheque book.

While the Bank of Canada rate has been reduced over the past decade, margins between the “overnight rate”, “prim rate” and “retail lending” has widened. That’s right…the banking system has done very well because you my fellow Canadian has been too happy to pay interest in the wide margins. 

This crisis has hit while you are highly leveraged meaning that many more of you will now be faced with bankruptcy unless your government starts REGULATING THE BANKING SECTOR in terms that assist you in managing your debt. The board of directors of your chartered banks won’t be too warm to that idea especially in lieu of their confounding argument that masses of Canadians hold chartered bank stock in their registered investments.      

From what I can see so far, your government is going to be floating more “paper” in order to free up credit. The term “paper” refers to securities which may take the form of derivative contracts. Oh ya…you remember those – the ones that produced the financial crisis of ’08 / ’09 (mortgage backed securities). Of course your government will also be referring to the “purchase of bonds” which is code for creating new money out of thin air with a charge to your grandchildren’s future.

Economics, Lifes Lessons

Newsy Week Eh

From the stand point of the stock market, this is a lesson that so many folks needed to learn. Your investment advisors are simply people with vulnerabilities like the rest of us. The buy and hold mantra has cost you money. You must put attention on your own investments and you must actively manage your portfolio with input from financial people who know more than you. You must be the torch bearer of your own financial destiny. You must be in a mode of “continuous learning”. What about locked in accounts and government pensions you ask. Well, you are at the mercy of portfolio managers but you still have access to your accounts with a right to know what you own.

So….how do I find the time to manage my own investments? You fit it in. You stop succumbing to the bosses request for overtime. You put boundaries around your schedule. You stop being a pushover when it comes to your calendar. This might mean helping your spouse understand that that second vacation within a calendar year goes bye bye.  Boo hoo! What would you rather have  – an earlier with compounded accelerated rate of return and an earlier retirement or that second vacation just because your kids get a spring break?

Now that I’m on a roll ‘cause I put this together having just returned from an empty gym ‘cause of the psychology behind avoiding sweat boxes now that we’re dealing with this corona virus, I expound further.  Have you seen the chart on the Dow 30? The thing has been going straight up for years. Did you not think that it was overdue for a major correction in response to some kind of Black Swan event? Hell….I simply took a look at the incompetence of governments in running budgets given deficits and debts and on that basis alone considered the market over heated. Have you not perceived the weakness currently in our North American political leaders??  There’s another factor right there in and of itself worthy of shorting the market or running for the hills.