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Jose James Plays Calgary

It was a show in tribute to jazz icon Bill Withers last night at the Jack Singer. As you can see, I had a choice seat. I got to say that one of my highlights was witnessing the pure joy of an audience in awe of this rising star, Jose James. One particular young woman simply beamed in delight and in fact one memorable moment was our eyes colliding upon intercepting witty stage talk. Tracks “Who Is He”, and “Ain’t No Sunshine” particularly stood out along with the groovy closer which turned a classy looking opera hall into a speakeasy lookalike. This fellow, James, possesses a stage charm inviting onlookers into his act from the outset. His voice is stellar with a wide range and particularly appealing in tenor like phrasing.   

The band was strong with frequent solos from lead man Brad Allen Williams. The only pedal featured that I could see from my quaint corner spot during the evening was a wah brandished in “Grandma’s Hands”. All members had their solo spots. James’ admiration for Bill Withers was genuine and lucky for us all in the end, James encored with one of his own. 

 

       

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Karlovic Commends Calgary

The Challenger Tour’s inaugural stop in Calgary has culminated with a compliment from winner Ivo Karlovic. The 39 year old has become the oldest player in history to win a title on the Challenger Tour and in so doing has remarked that the Acadia Tennis Centre in Calgary is “unbelievable”.  Calgary should take great pride in this feedback given the number of establishments this man would have played in during his lengthy career.

I had attended early round matches this past week and can attest that the organization was excellent in the context of this being the first major event run from this facility. The quality of play was outstanding but attendance was lacklustre. Canadian top ranked players Filip Peliwo and Brayden Schnur graced the courts making an impact on the draw with early round wins. The 2016 junior player of the year, Casper Ruud, stood out magnificently with consistency and power from the ground. Borna Gojo may have surprised himself with a spot in the semis having come from qualifying. For those fans looking for free pro tennis, qualifying rounds served up incredible value. 

Next year I anticipate sponsors to follow up on their financial commitment by filling their boxes and showcasing the event. Local tennis enthusiasts who this year witnessed jaw dropping racquet skill and athleticism will next year undoubtedly share the merits of a ticket.       

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Active or Passive Portfolio Management

I know, your broker is telling you not to worry, but had you purchased put options on any one of U.S. home builder stocks Pulegroup (PHM), D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar Corp. (LEN), Toll Bros (TOL) or KB Homes (KBH), back in the summer, your trades would have experienced three figure percentage gains (yes, options give you this kind of leverage).  This is not the high flying darling sector of tech stocks but was one which has experienced particularly high volatility with guidance from the U.S Federal Reserve of rising interest rates. We all knew that higher rates were coming down the pipe.  This trade was not on the radar of your banker overseeing your portfolio.

When you head over and review that charts on these stocks, perhaps you’ll be thinking twice regarding the counsel from your banker and those lowly performing mutual funds in your portfolio.

The securities industry does not think that you have the sophistication required for trading in options. They may be right but with education and a desire to achieve a higher rate of net worth growth, you can acquire that education and discover those unique trades specific to any economic condition. You are responsible for your net worth growth. What are you doing about it other than showing up for work?

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Martin Armstrong’s Take On European Bonds

The thing I like about Martin is his dispassionate analysis of economic events possibly learned through experience documented in the movie, “The Forecaster”. Although he provides a political backdrop in identifying the climate inherent to his analysis of international capital flows, he does so with an emotional indifference even tinged with sarcasm suggesting a deeper sense of abomination for the mismanagement of global monetary policy.

In contrast to other contemporaries of Austrian economic theory, Armstrong does not foresee an imminent collapse in the equity markets, nor a short term devaluation of the U.S. dollar.  Armstrong sees the rising interest rate environment and cracks in the European bond markets as potential sources of support for the U.S. dollar over the short term given that big money will have few places other than U.S. equities to turn.

Armstrong also differs from his peers in referencing a direct correlation between rising rates and rising equities in the current environment. He cites problems with European bond yields as reason to flee for quality in U.S. equities.

Over the long term however, Armstrong sees the monetary system start to unravel come 2021 once emerging markets come to the realization that debt repayment in lofty valued U.S. dollars will become untenable. Alas, Armstrong falls in line with others espousing ultimate trouble for markets of all sorts other that real estate, precious metals and other tangible assets.

On the contrary, P.H.D. of statistics Jim Willie, suggests that contagion associated with European banking default could become the prime driver of economic chaos. My sense is that Willie’s time frame is shorter than that of Armstrong’s.  Both gentlemen see problems such as hyper inflation, unemployment, and corruption in under developed nations masked from media view as seeds adjunct for the culmination an economic reset.

 

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Do Public Debts and Deficits Matter?

Yes they do. Are there consequences to never ending increases in government debt? Yes there are. Do we care like we should? No, we don’t? The Olympics are coming and the Canadian Press has indicated that governments will be on hook for three billion dollars associated with the endeavour. Your governments mean you. 

Gary Mason from the Globe and Mail has pointed out that when the Notley government took control, the Alberta debt was a manageable $11.9 billion. Given the unwillingness of this government to shave expenses during the collapse of oil royalty revenue, the debt is now projected to balloon to $71 billion dollars by 2020. Think about that for a minute….11.9 versus 71. Yup, it’s a 6 fold increase and the mayor of Calgary is worried about who leaked a report regarding Olympics planning. 

Greece in 2015 came to learn about what it means to spend beyond its means. Banks went on holidays and bank machines got turned off.  The health care system in Greece went on hiatus and austerity measures went into full effect. If creditors to a governmental jurisdiction come to learn that their investment is in jeopardy, terms will change to the detriment of debtors. You are your government.  Your government will ask you to come to their aid in the event of hardship in making payments. 

Your country also continues to spend like drunken sailors. Politicians love to match debt to GDP as if they can rationalize their continued increases in spending. The fact is that your country’s debt increases at a rate of $50 million per day. The taxes you send to Ottawa help cover the interest on this ever increasing debt.  Take $660 billion in federal debt while compounding a daily growth of 50 million per day and then factor in an increasing interest rate environment. Now, think again if the Olympics are worth the risk to you the taxpayer.